The first of this season’s CAF Champions League semifinals pits TP Mazembe’s formidable home form against Ahly’s lengthy unbeaten run in this competition. The two teams will meet on 20th April 2024, from 1pm GMT, for the CAFCL last four first leg.
TP Mazembe Probable XI: Faty; Keita, Ntambwe, Mondeko, Luzolo; Zemanga, Oladapo, Likonza; Kinzumbi, Beya, Kabwit (4-3-3).
Al Ahly Probable XI: Shobeir; Hany, Rabia, Abdelmoneim, Maaloul; Koka, Sulaya, Nedved; Tau, Modeste, Taher (4-3-3).
What is at Stake?
As I wrote in the preview to the preview, TP Mazembe is looking to reestablish itself at the high table of African football. The Lubumbashi side was last in the CAFCL last four in 2019 and last in the final in 2015. They beat Pyramids FC and Sundowns in the group stage but these didn’t cause enough buzz around the continent. Putting a team that has been reaching the CAFCL final annually to the sword will certainly draw more attention. Ahly is not a happy traveller to the DR Congo, where they have only ever won once. It is plausible to see their 18-match unbeaten run coming to an end this weekend. But let’s not forget that the Red Devils have been terrific in the semis since the run they’re on started in the 2020s. The Cairo side has won seven of their eight CAF Champions League semifinals matches, only drawing away to ES Setif (remember them?).
Lamine N’diaye’s boys find themselves in a good moment. After doing the impossible to score against Petro Luanda, they saw off Aigles du Congo and Vita Club in the Linafoot. This stretched their unbeaten run to eight matches. And they have only conceded twice in that run. I should also mention that TP Mazembe has not conceded a goal at home in the CAF Champions League – I’m clamoring for away goals rules to be scrapped as a result. The issue of concern for this team is the fitness of Keita, Beya and Mondeko. The trio has missed the recent league matches but will hopefully be ready for Al Ahly. While there are options in attacked and even central defence, Keita does not have a like for like replacement at right back. The third man in midfield is likely to be Zemanga who has usurped Ngalamulume in the pecking order. Oscar Kabwit has kind of done the same to the returning Filly Traore. There’s no guessing the hosts approach on Saturday. They’ll exert wave after wave of pressure especially if Ahly sits deep. The only team that thwarted was the best defence of the competition.
Where do I start with Marcel Koller’s problems? His team’s form is gone. The luck they were living off of had ended. ENPPI held them, ZED almost shut them out then Zamalek finally did what nobody has been able to do. The Red Devils are also plagued by injuries. Reports indicate that Attia and Ashour will not travel for this away match. This means that all of Ahly’s starting midfield is out, although it is said Dieng and this duo will be ready for the second leg. There are also concerns regarding El Shahat in attack. I don’t think it matters if Ahly is just going to park the bus but his spot would be taken by Taher. He appears to have impressed more than Reda Slim. Another person sweating for his position is Kahraba. He has had to share time with Abou Ali and Modeste (who is leaving the club). I think Koller goes for Modeste, much to the anger of fans haha, so that he can hold the ball to bring Tau and Taher into play. We’ll likely see the same approach that was on display against Simba, without the lucky early goal. The injuries will only push Koller to be more conservative.
Prediction
TP Mazembe 1-0 Al Ahly
Al Ahly is likely to sit deep with little intent to cause problems on the other end from open play, like Petro Luanda did. But they have not demonstrated themselves to be a team that can prevent the opponent from creating chances in the box. The quality of chances that TP Mazembe creates will be the biggest determinant of the outcome of this match.
cafcl gazette 